Appendix D — Further Reading
The real sources this book stands on. Every figure and quotation is drawn from these; where the science is contested, these are where to see the argument.
On the logic of inference: C. S. Peirce, Collected Papers (on abduction); Peter Lipton, Inference to the Best Explanation (1991/2004); Umberto Eco & Thomas Sebeok (eds.), The Sign of Three: Dupin, Holmes, Peirce (1983).
On why the mind fails: Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011); Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases," Science (1974); Michael Shermer, The Believing Brain (2011); Ray Hyman, "Cold Reading" (1977).
On the honest engine: works on Bayesian reasoning and the courtroom; the Royal Statistical Society's 2001 statement on the Sally Clark case; on People v. Collins (1968).
On calibrated judgment: Paul Meehl, Clinical versus Statistical Prediction (1954); Philip Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment (2005) and (with Dan Gardner) Superforecasting (2015).
On the state of forensics: National Research Council, Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States (2009); PCAST, Forensic Science in Criminal Courts (2016).
On the machine and its dangers: Judea Pearl & Dana Mackenzie, The Book of Why (2018); reporting on algorithmic risk assessment and facial-recognition error; Cathy O'Neil, Weapons of Math Destruction (2016).
On the ethics of the reading eye: Jeremy Bentham on the Panopticon; Michel Foucault, Discipline and Punish (1975); Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism (2019).
And, of course: Arthur Conan Doyle, the complete Sherlock Holmes. Read him for joy. Just don't try it at home.
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